Mamelodi Sundowns will head into their final FIFA Club World Cup group stage clash against Brazilian giants Fluminense knowing that progression to the Round of 16 is within reach, but only a win will do.
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The Brazilians currently sit third in Group F with three points from their opening two matches. After a 1-0 win against Ulsan Hyundai and a narrow 4-3 defeat to Borussia Dortmund, Miguel Cardoso’s men must now topple South American champions Fluminense to stand a chance of progressing.
According to the official qualification permutations, Sundowns will qualify as Group F winners if they defeat Fluminense and Borussia Dortmund fail to beat Ulsan. This would see the Brazilians top the group and face the Group E runners-up in Atlanta on 1 July.
If Sundowns beat Fluminense and Borussia Dortmund do beat Ulsan, Sundowns would finish as runners-up in Group F, and qualify to face the Group E winners in Charlotte on 30 June. In this case, Dortmund would advance as group winners, with both sides progressing to the knockout rounds.
Simply put — the only route to the next round for Sundowns is a win.
A draw or defeat against Fluminense would see the 2016 CAF Champions League winners eliminated from the tournament, regardless of the result in the Dortmund vs Ulsan clash.
Fluminense, on the other hand, have more paths to progression. The Brazilian outfit can qualify as either winners or runners-up, depending on a range of results and tie-breaking factors, including goal difference, goals scored, and even fair play points.
Dortmund, meanwhile, also remain in contention but must beat Ulsan to secure their place. Ulsan HD, with one point from two matches, have already been eliminated.
Sundowns will have to produce their best performance yet on the world stage if they are to extend their Club World Cup journey. With the odds stacked, only three points will keep their dream alive.
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