Over the last few seasons, football lovers in South Africa haven't really had any sort of title race to enjoy. With the dominance of Mamelodi Sundowns and their five successive league titles, the drama has often been lower down the table during the season run-in. This time, we look set for an epic three-horse race for second spot and a coveted place in next season's CAF Champions League. Although we shouldn't completely discount last season's runners-up, Cape Town City, who are six points off second place in fifth spot, it does look more like a battle between three clubs. SuperSport United, Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs will battle for the Champions League place, with whoever ends third going into the CAF Confederation Cup. Fourth spot could mean no continental action at all, so there is everything to play for! We look at the sides' respective fixture lists, key players, crucial tactical considerations and one potentially massive direct match-up in Round 29!
Kaizer Chiefs
Remaining fixtures:
DATE HOME TEAM AWAY TEAM
01/04/2023 PSL Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch
08/04/2023 PSL Kaizer Chiefs vs Marumo Gallants
15/04/2023 Cup Royal AM vs Kaizer Chiefs
23/04/2023 PSL Sekhukhune United vs Kaizer Chiefs
27/04/2023 PSL Chippa United vs Kaizer Chiefs
02/05/2023 PSL Kaizer Chiefs vs Swallows
13/05/2023 PSL SuperSport United vs Kaizer Chiefs
20/05/2023 PSL Kaizer Chiefs vs Cape Town City
Amakhosi have seven league matches left to play, whilst they also have a Nedbank Cup quarter-final against one of their bogey sides in Royal AM. In terms of league fixtures, they are at home in four matches and away on three occasions. Right now, Arthur Zwane's side actually have more wins on their travels this season than at home! Their 11 home matches have yielded 17 points, an average of 1.55 points per match. Whereas on the road, they have 20 points from 12 games, 1.66 points per match. In fact, they've struggled a lot at home of late with three losses and just six points from their last five on their own turf. On the road, they've won three of their last five with 10 points accrued. If we look at who they play, it's not an overly favourable set of fixtures. Up next, is a Stellenbosch FC side that is on fire with six wins in their last seven encounters. Stellies did the double over the Soweto giants last season, but the latter did win the reverse fixture this term as Bonfils- Caleb Bimenyimana netted a hattrick of penalties. After that, it's a Marumo Gallants side that desperately needs points to survive relegation and who weren't far off beating the Naturena-based side in the reverse fixture. There are trips to Sekhukhune United and Chippa United after that, two sides that Amakhosi lost to at home in the first round. Without doubt, the headline fixture is the one away at SuperSport United in the penultimate game of the season. That could be the deciding match in the top two battle, as even a draw could open the door for Orlando Pirates, who host Sekhukhune over the same weekend.
Key factors:
1) New-found attacking chemistry
Chiefs are in great form right now with four wins in a row for the first time in six years. Looking at their fixture list, they really need to push for maximum points in their next two. Against Stellenbosch, it will be a battle of pace. Can Ashley Du Preez's speed be maximised against his former club? The so-called R10 million man has been excellent in recent weeks and he scored against Stellies in the MTN8 earlier in the season. "Mangethe" has had a chance to work on the combinations between Du Preez, Keagan Dolly and Christian Saile during the FIFA break, although Mduduzi Shabalala was away with the national U23 team and provided an assist against Congo-Brazzaville.
2) Defenders fighting for their futures
Perhaps as important is stopping the pacey Iqraam Rayners, who has netted nine goals in six matches since returning to the Winelands-based outfit. The only factor for the Glamour Boys is their defensive unit. The impending signings of Thatayaone Ditlhokwe and Given Msimango in central defence may indicate Zwane isn't satisfied with the performances of his current options and their defending against Golden Arrows and Maritzburg United in recent weeks has left a lot to be desired. With those two additions coming in July, Siyabonga Ngezana, Zitha Kwinika and Edmilson Dove need to cut out their errors and put together a streak of clean sheets. The writing is on the wall for someone like Njabulo Ngcobo and with his attention turning to an exit, as reported by Soccer Laduma, he may not be fully focused if he is called upon either.
3) Keeping Dove and Maart fit
In the Amakhosi squad right now, there are arguably only two players who are "irreplaceable" in Dove and Yusuf Maart. The Mozambican has started every league match since his debut except one, the 3-2 loss to Arrows where Austin Dube came into the XI from the cold. Dove is a specialist left centre-back, crucial to the side's build-up play and has given some big performances in recent weeks. Maart, meanwhile, is the glue in that midfield. Whilst Siyethemba Sithebe has done a great job alongside him, should the former Sekhukhune man get injured, it would thrust Samkelo Zwane into the starting line-up during the business end of the season. An injury to even one of these two players and the Soweto giants' hopes of ending their trophy drought and taking second spot could evaporate pretty quickly.
POINTS PREDICTION: 12
Chiefs' home form is a concern and they have some teams coming up who have shown they know how to beat them. Based on the season so far and the difficulty of the fixtures, they should take about 12 points from their final seven matches.
Orlando Pirates
Remaining fixtures:
DATE HOME TEAM AWAY TEAM
01/04/2023 PSL Richards Bay vs Orlando Pirates
08/04/2023 PSL Chippa United vs Orlando Pirates
15/04/2023 Cup Dondol Stars vs Orlando Pirates
22/04/2023 PSL Orlando Pirates vs Cape Town City
30/04/2023 PSL TS Galaxy vs Orlando Pirates
03/05/2023 PSL Orlando Pirates vs Royal AM
13/05/2023 PSL Orlando Pirates vs Sekhukhune United
20/05/2023 PSL AmaZulu vs Orlando Pirates
Like their archrivals, Pirates have seven league matches plus at least one cup fixture left to play this season. Realistically, they should beat giant-killers Dondol Stars in the Nedbank Cup and would therefore have one further match to navigate at the very least. In fact, should the Houghton-based side reach the semifinals or even the final, the chance for a domestic cup double (having won the MTN8 already) could prove a significant distraction to their push for a top-two finish. In terms of league matches, Jose Riveiro's team may have a better run on paper than either Chiefs or SuperSport, not least because those sides face each other. Another benefit is that while Amakhosi have to play Gallants, Swallows FC and Chippa–teams fighting for this lives down at the bottom – their old foes face sides that are in mid-table, like Richards Bay, TS Galaxy and AmaZulu FC. Their first match is against a free-falling Natal Rich Boyz side that has lost six successive games, three of their last four at home and who have lost 11 of their 12 encounters this season when falling 1-0 behind. The reverse fixture did end 0-0 though, so nothing is guaranteed on Saturday at King Zwelithini Stadium. Having said that, Pirates have to play four of their seven matches on the road. They are wildly inconsistent in away matches and have lost five of their last eight in the league when leaving Orlando. The Sea Robbers lost at home to the Chilli Boys earlier this season, have lost on their last two trips to Galaxy and have drawn on their last two visits to Usuthu. There are no bankers in the PSL!
Key factors:
1) Keeping Lorch fit and Saleng firing
Without doubt, there are two major factors in the side's push for the top two: Monnapule Saleng maintaining his form and Thembinkosi Lorch staying fit. The latter brings a level of quality and final pass that no other Buccaneers player can match, whilst Saleng's 12 goals in 20 appearances this season have marked him as a possible Player of the Season contender. Meanwhile, "Nyoso" has scored in both Nedbank Cup matches in recent weeks as he comes back to full match fitness. Pirates have won three of the last four league matches with him starting. Riveiro has used him in a narrow left-sided role in recent outings, with Kabelo Dlamini as the number 10 and both Deon Hotto and Vincent Pule benched – showing the depth in the squad.
2) Midfield balance with Monare back
Of late, Pirates have been doing well against sides outside the top five. Their last eight league matches have brought six wins with only Mamelodi Sundowns and Chiefs beating them (both 1-0). They should be able to score goals against the likes of Richards Bay and Chippa. Another factor is the fitness of Thabang Monare. The 33-year-old was playing really well prior to a thigh injury and he returned against Matsatsantsa with an excellent outing alongside Miguel Timm. That duo give real cover to the defence and will be needed in upcoming away matches. Once back at home, the creativity of Ndabayithethwa Ndlondlo may be more appropriate. Until then, Monare's availability is a big factor for sure.
3) Fullback areas are key
In recent matches, with Bandile Shandu not available and Thabiso Monyane slightly out of favour, it's been Paseka Mako at right back. With Innocent Maela serving a two-match ban, Hotto deputised on the other side as a pure left back. Both sides feel slightly vulnerable and unbalanced right now. Mako is a strong defender, but his attacking game is limited by playing on his weaker foot whilst Maela is arguably better these days as a stay-at-home fullback who allows a back three to build up. It could be a problem area, especially when they face Cape Town City and Royal AM, who both have number of dangerous and direct wingers like Khanyisa Mayo and Mfundo Thikazi.
POINTS PREDICTION: 14
Bucs' form both home and away has been inconsistent, but they are now scoring more goals and they don't tend to draw matches. In fact, they haven't played out a single stalemate the league since October, a run of fixtures. The Nedbank Cup could distract them, but their fixtures don't look too bad and a haul of around 14 points look possible.
SuperSport United
Remaining fixtures:
DATE HOME TEAM AWAY TEAM
01/04/2023 PSL Chippa United vs SuperSport United
07/04/2023 PSL SuperSport United vs TS Galaxy
18/04/2023 PSL Marumo Gallants vs SuperSport United
23/04/2023 PSL SuperSport United vs AmaZulu FC
02/05/2023 PSL SuperSport United vs Stellenbosch
13/05/2023 PSL SuperSport United vs Kaizer Chiefs
20/05/2023 PSL Sekhukhune United vs SuperSport United
SuperSport are the side currently in second spot, although their loss to Pirates last time out saw their cushion cut to just two points. Gavin Hunt will be desperate to finish second and get another crack at the CAF Champions League. With Pitso Mosimane giving him a voting of confidence on social media recently, saying he will win the biggest club tournament in Africa, the former Amakhosi coach will be more motivated to maintain that second spot until the end. When he was at the Soweto giants, he saw sacked less than a week of taking the team into the semi-finals of the Champions League after a 4-3 aggregate win against Simba Sports Club in the quarterfinals. He wasn't given the chance to play the two-legged semi-finals against Wydad Casablanca and he will feel he has a real point to prove on the continent. Unlike Pirates and Chiefs, SuperSport are out of the Nedbank Cup and won't have that distraction. It also means they get some significant recovery time between fixtures, such as a full 11 days between hosting Galaxy and travelling to Gallants and another 11-day gap to prepare for the crunch clash against the Naturena-based outfit. Crucially for Hunt's team is that they have four matches at home. That is hugely significant because they haven't lost at home all season in the league with seven wins and four draws from their 11 fixtures. They've won seven of their last nine home matches and they're currently taking two thirds of their points on their own turf. A massive spanner has been thrown into the works though because Lucas Moripe Stadium will not be used for the foreseeable future as it undergoes required upgrades. SuperSport are effectively homeless and may even need to host home matches somewhere like Ellis Park. On the road, Hunt's team tend to struggle and their last five away fixtures have seen three losses and two draws.
Key Factors:
1) Keeping Grobler fit
As always with the Randburg-based side, a big consideration is whether Bradley Grobler is fit. He has largely avoided injuries this term, missing just the Sundowns derby defeat in January. When he was suspended recently against Arrows, Zakhele Lepasa came into the XI and scored a brace. Maybe, finally, the club has reliable cover and support for Grobler for the first time since Jeremy Brockie left. The gaps between fixtures should mean the veteran avoids fatigue and is given extra days off to get him through the final seven fixtures.
2) Will departing players keep focus?
A big question mark, aside from the sudden loss of their home ground, is how focused the squad will be. We know that Ditlhokwe is leaving for Chiefs at the end of the season, whilst key men like Grant Margeman and Siphesihle Ndlovu have doubts over their futures, as reported by the Siya crew. The latter only signed a one-year deal and isn't certain to renew, whilst the former is only on loan from Downs. Hunt also only has Lepasa on a loan from Pirates, whilst Thamsanqa Gabuza's contract is running down and Thabang Sibanyoni is also a loanee. With Grobler now 35, there are big question marks up front going into next season and the coach will need to keep everyone focused on the task at hand and not their personal futures.
3) Sticking to a back four
Hunt has usually been a coach who prefers a back four and two holding midfielders, with genuine wingers and two strikers. However, he made a surprising alternation against Pirates in the last match – he dropped Onismor Bhasera and used Ghampani Lungu and Thapelo Maseko as wingbacks. The adjustment didn't work and Matsatsantsa only had two shots on target and a paltry 0.50 Expected Goals created. Going back to a 4-4-2 shape with Grobler and Lepasa as a pairing looks like the best way to win matches between now and May. There is no need for "Hunty" to overthink things.
POINTS PREDICTION: 12
It isn't easy to gauge how many points SuperSport will take until we know how they adjust to leaving Lucas Moripe Stadium. They probably won't take very many on their travels (based on their recent away day blues), but they have enough to beat the likes of Galaxy and AmaZulu FC at home, prior to that key home fixture against Amakhosi. SuperSport should pick up approximately 12 points from their remaining seven fixtures.
Stat attack
KEY STAT
SUPERSPORT CHIEFS PIRATES
Goals Per Match (Home) 1.63 1.25 1.27
Goals Per Match (Away) 0.83 1 1.08
Ball Possession Average 45% 55% 50%
Shots Per Match 11.5 11.4 13.7
Expected Goals Per Match 1.4 1.2 1.62
Opp. Expected Goals Per Match 1.1 0.77 1.09
A very basic look at the data of the teams may give us another indication of who will take second place. As it stands, SuperSport are quite prolific in terms of scoring goals at home (by the low PSL standards!), but they score about half as frequently on their travels. In fact, all of these teams struggle to score in away matches and are very likely to drop points in at least one, if not more, of their remaining DStv Premiership matches on the road. The ball possession figures are what you'd expect, with Hunt's side averaging just 45% ball share per match. He has never been a coach who wanted his side to keep the ball for the sake of it. The most interesting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are in the shots and Expected Goals – a measure of how many goals a team SHOULD score based on their shot locations and type of chances created – where Chiefs are having a lot more goal attempts than their top two rivals and are creating the most chances. One big caveat, though, is that this is inflated quite a lot by Amakhosi having nine penalties this season! Both SuperSport and Pirates have only had three penalties each, a slightly surprising statistic considering both of those sides are stacked with wingers, whereas the Naturena-based side often play without genuine, dribbling, old-school wide men but rather the likes of Dolly and Du Preez on the flanks. What these KPIs show is that Zwane's men may be best equipped to score the goals required to claim a CAF Champions League spot, if they can just convert a higher proportion of their opportunities. To be fair, the head coach has been preaching that exact point all season!
Down to the wire it shall go!
Predicting this top two battle is really not easy and the points predictions are based on results up to this point both home and away. It is possible that one of the sides will have a dip in form and fall out of the top four altogether or one side could hit a streak of wins like we're witnessing from Amakhosi at present. For neutrals, it would be ideal if the teams were all neck and neck after 28 matches and the SuperSport v Chiefs match had the makings of a decider, whilst Bucs host Babina Noko that day. Prior to those Round 29 fixtures will be the Nedbank Cup semi-finals, which may involve one or both of the Soweto giants. Matsatsantsa will only have their eye on one prize, but Hunt may not enjoy having long breaks between matches as he has always spoken about the need for players to maintain rhythm and match fitness. Either way, there will be twists and turns over the next eight weeks. Maybe in the future we will get this sort of excitement in the title race, but for now, we have to be satisfied with it being for the CAF spots! As Sir Alex Ferguson used to say, it's now "squeaky bum time"!
